Improvement in Estimation Methodology for Ground Water Prediction

Water is a key component of the agricultural system. Availability of assured and adequate supply of water makes for improvement in agricultural productivity. In regions which are not at present serviced by large irrigation schemes, lift irrigation by means of irrigation wells and the like is essential for such growth. Such regions are quite a few in Karnataka. It is here that we are faced with the problem of ground water. The uncertainty of prediction of a certain assured quantum of water is so high as to render, not too infrequently, such investments uneconomical. It has been established that whereas groundwater availablility can be predicted with a probability of 0.8, quantity of groundwater available can be predicted with an associated probability of only 0.5.

The Department of Mines & Geology, Government of Karnataka, has maintained detailed case histories of more than 1,500 wells drilled over the last two years; less detailed data base is available for a few more years. It was felt that this size of data would be sufficient for developing computer software which could be used for evaluation of fresh data, thereby improving the probability of success for prediction of quantity of groundwater.